IN MEDIUM TERM, DANGOTE’S REFINERY TO ACCOUNT FOR OVER HALF OF AFRICA’S REFINING ADDITIONS- OPEC
The World Oil Outlook was launched at Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in the United Arab Emirate on the 31st of October,2022. It stated that Dangote’s refinery’s capacity will account for more than half of Africa’s expected distillation addition in the medium term.
According to OPEC Nigeria’s distillation additions in Africa have been estimated at 1.2 million barrels per day in the medium term. Dangote’s refineries have the capacity of 650,000 barrels per day accounting for half of this number. Of all refinery additions expected across Africa in the medium term, Dangote’s refinery is the largest expected project.
. These new refineries will address the demand growth in Africa
. It will reduce product import in some countries
Although the projects in the pipeline will address some level of demand, in the long run, the total required long-term refining capacity additions needed in Africa are estimated at 3.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by Africa’s strong demand growth.
These additions would help not only to cover demand growth but also to reduce product imports in some countries. Continuous competition with product inflows from other markets and problems related to project financing and finalization remain the main challenges for the continent in building the required capacity on time.
Any delays and/or cancellations would necessarily lead to higher product imports. The OPEC outlook stated that according to recent reports, the Dangote refinery commissioning is likely to be delayed from 2022 to 2023, partly due to financial issues.
Continuous competition with product inflow from other markets and project financing and finalizing problems and other problems related to this are the main problems for the continent in building required capacity on time. Delays and cancellations of the project will lead to higher product imports and OPEC Outlook stated that according to recent reports, Dangote refinery will likely be delayed from 2022 to 2023, partly due to financial problems.
According to the Outlook, Nigeria will likely see the addition of some small modular refineries with the capacity of up to 20,000 barrels per day over the medium term thereby adding much needed capacity to the country. The Outlook stated
The potential cumulative refining capacity increases to above 1 mb/d by 2027, mostly due to announced expansions in West Africa, such as Dangote in Nigeria.
The Warri, Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries in Nigeria are currently undergoing renovations. In the OPEC outlook, it is stated that Africa has a large number of non-operating refineries, some of which are undergoing refurbishment. If the refurbishments succeed, Africa could expect even higher throughputs and utilization rates in the long term.
These additions could lead to refinery throughputs increase from 1.8 mb/d in 2021 to 4.8 mb/d in 2045, based on strong demand growth and refining capacity additions in both the medium- and long-term
Other expected refining projects in Africa include;
The 100 tb/d refinery to be built in Soyo, Angola
The 110 tb/d Hassi Messaoud refinery expansion in Algeria
The 160 tb/d Midor refinery expansion in Egypt
The 10 tb/d Brahms modular refinery in Guinea.
The 110 tb/d Pointe Noire II refinery in the Republic of Congo
Ghana and Senegal are also expected to commission new units, most of which are modular.